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EMERGING MARKETS AND COUNTRY RISK EVALUATION

2017-2018

IESEG School of Management ( IÉSEG )

Code Cours :

1718-IÉSEG-M1S1S2-IBE-MA-EI66UE

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS


Niveau Année de formation Période Langue d'enseignement 
Master1S1S2English
Professeur(s) responsable(s)H.EL ASRAOUI
Intervenant(s)Margita ENGSTROM


Pré requis

No specific pre-requisites are necessary, although previous course in economics, international finance or global business/political economy could be useful. The course will be interactive and

Objectifs du cours

Country risk analysis helps corporate leaders understanding whether a particular country can pay the debt. However, this analysis should be matched with a political risk analysis that tells them whether that country will pay its debt. The course aims to provide students with some preliminary tools in country risk analysis.

Contenu du cours

Country Risks are critical to International Business Development. The purpose of this course Corse is to provide students with a better understanding of Country Risk and help them to understand the key drivers of country and sovereign risk in both mature and emerging markets. It presents the factors that generate the country risk, the main types of them, methods of analysis, their evaluation by the rating agencies, and, some countries’ rating assessment. More than providing a basic knowledge of traditional risk analysis the course also considers in the globalized world in motion taking account regional and world interdependencies. It eventually enable students to review some lessons learned from the current and previous crisis in various regions of the world.
No specific pre-requisites are necessary, although previous course in economics, international finance or global business/political economy could be useful. The course will be interactive and Country Risks are critical to International Business Development. The purpose of this course Corse is to provide students with a better understanding of Country Risk and help them to understand the key drivers of country and sovereign risk in both mature and emerging markets. It presents the factors that generate the country risk, the main types of them, methods of analysis, their evaluation by the rating agencies, and, some countries’ rating assessment. More than providing a basic knowledge of traditional risk analysis the course also considers in the globalized world in motion taking account regional and world interdependencies. It eventually enable students to review some lessons learned from the current and previous crisis in various regions of the world.

Emerging markets and economies
- Basic Concepts
Country Risk Analysis
- Crises ?
- Definition ?
- Measures ?
Country Risk Methodologies
- Sovereign risk ?
- Sovereign risk measures?Country Risk Models and Rating Agencies Approach
Other risks
- Political risks Social risks
-Natural risks
-Group presentations
Peer evaluations


Modalités d'enseignement

Organisation du cours

TypeNombre d'heuresRemarques
Face to face
Interactive class16,00  
Independent work
Research4,00  
Independent study
Estimated personal workload10,00  
Group Project10,00  
Individual Project10,00  
Charge de travail globale de l'étudiant50,00  

Méthodes pédagogiques

  • Presentation
  • Project work
  • Interactive class
  • Case study


Évaluation

Two case studies done in teams, a presentation done in teams and an individual contry risk assessment due 2 weeks after class

Type de ContrôleDuréeNombrePondération
Others
Case study2,00240,00
Individual Project2,00140,00
presentation
statement0,50120,00
TOTAL     100,00

Bibliographie

  • Andrea Pescatori, Damiano Sandri, and John Simon (2013), Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold? IMF working paper Page 3 -

  • • Bremmer, I. (2005): “Managing Risk in an Unstable World”, Harvard Business Review -

  • • Campbell, R. Harvey, Claude Erb and Tadas Viskanta (1996): “Political risk, financial risk ?and economic risk”, Financial Analysis Journal, 56:6, pp.28-46. -

  • • Canuto , O. , dos Santos, P. (2004), Macroeconomics and Sovereign Risk Ratings -

  • • Credit rating agencies: A primer for corporate treasurers: Journal of Corporate Treasury ?Management, September 1, 2008 -

  • • Csonto, I. ,Ivaschenko, I. (2013), Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging ?Markets: Local Fundamentals and Global Factors vs. Ever-Changing Misalignments, IMF ?working paper -

  • • Global Economic Prospects ( January 2016), Global-Outlook -

  • • Khanna, T., Palepu K. and Sinha J. (2005): “Strategies that Fit Emerging Markets”, Harvard ?Business Review, June, pp.63-76. -

  • • Operating risk in emerging markets, EIU (2006), 43 pages -

  • • Robinson (2014): The IMF Response to the Global Crisis: Assessing Risks and ?Vulnerabilities in IMF Surveillance , IEO Background reports -

  • Udaibir S. Das, Michael G. Papaioannou, and Christoph Trebesch , (2009), Sovereign ?Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets, IMF working papers. -


Ressources internet



 
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